This is Part I of a 3-Day Feature. Clear here for Part II: Pinning All of Our Hopes on the Vita…for Better or Worse

Let's face it: the Xbox 360 is an old geezer. It is, in fact, the longest-running console before being replaced by a newer model from the same manufacturer, beating the NES's six-year record – and that's if Microsoft has a change of heart and releases its next console this year, let alone in 2013. There's no way the little black box can hold on for much longer, let alone for another two years... right? 

A quick look at the 360's games roster backs this up. In ‘10, Microsoft enjoyed roughly ten high-profile exclusive releases (such as Alan Wake, Halo: Reach, and Fable III); the year before that, it was approximately 13 (Halo Wars, the GTA IV DLC, and Halo: ODST). This past year, not including Kinect-only titles, it was an astonishing five (Gears of War 3, Forza 4, and Halo: Anniversary). At this rate, 2013's lineup will be a single title. That has heavy Kinect support. And won’t release until the fall.

It's an even more dismal picture when compared to Sony's ever-growing roster of exclusives, which amounted to nearly 20 titles last year and which ranged from LittleBigPlanet 2 to Uncharted 3. True, the PS3's trajectory has been the exact opposite of the 360's, with the system stumbling out of the gate and taking the better part of two years to find its footing – and, true, that impressive-sounding lineup of killer apps sold at an unbelievably dismal rate – but you better believe Sony's making the point that at least it's not collapsing before reaching the finish line.

And although the Wii's release list for ‘11 was enough to make 360 gamers pat themselves on the back, Nintendo's track record with its various systems actually reinforces the idea that Microsoft should jump ship sooner rather than later. The last year (if not more) of the Nintendo 64's, GameCube's, and, now, the Wii's lifespans were efforts at treading water while waiting for the next generation to hit. That Nintendo has managed to maintain its userbase is a testament to its salability – and its customers' loyalty.

Yes, the Kinect was an effort, at least in part, to eke out an extra two or three years from the 360's already-long-in-the-tooth lifespan (if this were any other generation, the 720 would have already been shipped in ‘09), and any complete assessment of the system's software lineup should, thus, include Kinect titles. Besides using voice commands to access Netflix content, however, just how consistently gamers have been utilizing the motion peripheral remains to be seen – and whether it will be a significant aid in fending off old age.

But lest we be like Lord Voldemort, it's important to acknowledge the flaw in the plan: the 360 is still capable of outputting graphically intense experiences such as Rage or the Crysis series. It is still sitting atop the sales charts, thanks to the Wii's recent implosion and Sony’s inability to move software on either of its current systems. And third-parties have been only too happy to pick up MS's slack and release a constant stream of (usually) solid content.

And then there's the effort to blend so-called "hardcore" and Kinect experiences, like Ghost Recon's Gunsmith mode or Mass Effect's voice activation (if it ends up materializing in the finished product, that is). Microsoft was the first company, after all, to perfect online for console gamers and to incorporate the social web into users' living rooms; if anyone can figure out the alchemy of making motion relevant, it'll be them. And who knows? Maybe they'll be the first to crack the nut of indefinitely extending system lifespans, too.

But if not, it’s going to be a long, slow, rough slough until the Xbox 720 triumphantly arrives, resurrecting the dead – or, at least, waking them from their coma-esque hibernations.

Marc N. Kleinhenz has covered the gaming industry for over a dozen sites, including Gamasutra, IGN, and TotalPlayStation, where he was features editor. He co-hosts the Airship Travelogues podcast at Nintendojo and has had his creative writing published through Alterna Comics, Death Head Grin, and Smashed Cat magazine, among others.

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Thanks for reading Part I of our "The Year Ahead" feature! Parts II and III can be found below.

Part II:  Pinning All of Our Hopes on the Vita…for Better or Worse

Part III: 3DS Will Storm the Show and Wii U has the Encore